日本领导力危机：石破茂支持率骤降至危险水平
东京——根据共同社周日发布的最新民意调查，日本首相石破茂政府正岌岌可危，其支持率已暴跌至危险的22%。这一断崖式下跌使他上任八个月的内阁 firmly entrenched in what Japanese political analysts call the "danger zone," with the specter of the "resignation zone" looming just below the 20% threshold. 这一定位，政治分析师称之为“危险区”，而低于20%的“辞职区”更是近在眼前。
糟糕的民调数据显示，政府与公众之间的鸿沟正在扩大，反对率飙升至62%。这已经是石破茂内阁连续第三个月陷于政治上的险境，随着日本面临几个关键时刻，情况变得越来越难以维持。
在日本政治中，“辞职区”指的是一个关键门槛，当首相的公众支持率跌破30%时，意味着因政治支持减少而辞职的风险增高。这一概念源于观察，即日本领导人在支持率进入这一危险范围时往往会下台，因为这损害了他们有效执政和维持党内信心的能力。
支持率持续下滑：追踪跌势
最新的数据反映了石破茂自2024年10月上任以来持续的糟糕趋势。共同社的民调显示，支持率比3月本已令人担忧的27.6%又下降了5.6个百分点，而3月的数据本身就比2月下降了12个百分点。
其他主要民调机构的数据同样严峻。时事通讯社4月的数据显示支持率为23.1%，而朝日新闻3月的一项调查显示支持率仅为26%。多个民调机构的一致性凸显了石破茂困境的严重性。
一位不愿透露姓名的资深政治分析师说：“我们正在目睹一个教科书式的政治‘自由落体’。对石破茂来说，特别危险的是下降的速度。像我们在3月看到的那样，一个月内下降12个百分点，这表明他的政府存在根本性的结构性问题。”
支持率的下滑使石破茂的境地与前首相岸田文雄类似，岸田的支持率在2023年底曾跌至20%后离任。然而，石破茂的情况更加危险，因为他不像之前自民党那样拥有多数优势。
根源：数据之外
公众信心的崩溃似乎是多方面原因造成的，民调数据指向了几个关键因素：
礼券争议
3月和4月民调暴跌的一个重要催化剂是，石破茂被曝向15名自民党首次当选的议员发放了每人10万日元的礼品卡。这一做法被广泛解读为可能违反了《政治资金规正法》，唤起了人们对自民党先前财务丑闻的记忆。
早稻田大学的一位政治学教授指出：“时机再糟糕不过了。就在公众准备给石破茂一个机会，让他与前任有所区别时，这一丑闻再次强化了人们对自民党内部‘一切照旧’的腐败看法。”
全球挑战下的领导力真空
民调显示，除了具体的丑闻之外，还存在更深层次的信任危机。当被问及为何不支持内阁时，多数受访者 citing "no expectations for the prime minister's leadership" or disappointment with his cabinet's policies. 提到了“对首相的领导力没有期待”或对其内阁政策感到失望。
这种领导力感知问题恰逢日本面临特别具有挑战性的时期，包括中美之间贸易紧张关系再起，威胁地区经济稳定。近四分之三的受访者对日本能否在即将与特朗普政府进行的谈判中 secure favorable tariff concessions expressed doubt that Japan would secure favorable tariff concessions in upcoming negotiations with the Trump administration. 获得有利的关税减让表示怀疑。
矛盾的是，在石破茂 dwindling base of supporters, the most commonly cited reason for backing him was that "there is no other capable candidate for Prime Minister" — hardly a ringing endorsement of his leadership. 日益减少的支持者基础中，支持他的最常见原因是“没有其他能干的首相候选人”——这 hardly a ringing endorsement of his leadership. 很难说是对其领导力的有力认可。
历史背景：日本首相何时会下台
日本的政治格局已经确立了首相脆弱性的明确门槛。支持率低于30%被广泛认为是进入了“危险区”，而支持率低于20%通常会触发内部人士所谓的“辞职区”。
历史先例非常明显：
- 森喜朗在2001年看到自己的支持率跌至个位数，几周内被迫辞职。
- 菅义伟在支持率在低20%范围内徘徊三个月后下台。
- 甚至岸田文雄，他在支持率低于30%的情况下挺过了九个月，但advantage of LDP supermajorities that Ishiba lacks. 他有自民党拥有多数的优势，这是石破茂所不具备的。
一位不愿透露姓名的前自民党内阁成员解释说：“‘20%法则’虽然没有写进任何法律，但它就像一条法律一样。一旦跌破那个门槛，党内机器就会开始把你视为选举的负资产而不是资产。自我保护本能就会启动，尤其是在面临连任的议员中。”
“完美风暴”：2025年的严峻考验
石破茂面临一系列不断升级的挑战，这些挑战将考验他 diminished political capital: 削弱的政治资本：
当前的国会障碍
政府必须在5月和6月通过国会危险的预算审议，而反对党控制着几个关键委员会。这些场合将提供充足的机会，让礼券丑闻和其他争议持续受到公众关注。
如果石破茂的反对率 remain above 60%, opposition parties are expected to force a no-confidence motion in early June. 仍高于60%，反对党预计将在6月初提出不信任案。尽管该动议在数学上likely fail mathematically, it would create another damaging news cycle and possibly embolden LDP dissidents. 可能会失败，但这将制造 another damaging news cycle and possibly embolden LDP dissidents. 另一个 damaging news cycle and possibly embolden LDP dissidents. 另一个造成损害的新闻周期，并可能 embolden LDP dissidents. embolden LDP dissidents. 鼓励自民党内部的反对者。
选举清算临近
定于2025年夏天举行的参议院选举 looming as an existential threat. 对手正将此视为一场生死攸关的威胁。面临竞争性选区的自民党成员已开始私下表达担忧，担心如果石破茂 remains the party's face. 仍然是党的 face. 招牌人物，会对地方选举产生不利影响。
一位与多个政党有联系的政治策略师说：“对于自民党在边缘选区的成员来说，算法变得非常简单。如果与一个不受欢迎的首相 associated with an unpopular prime minister costs them 5-10 points, that's the difference between winning and losing. 联系在一起会让他们损失5-10个百分点，那就是输赢的区别。他们将向党的领导层施压，要求改变。”
日本的象征性一年
时机尤为重要，因为2025年标志着日本历史上的几个里程碑纪念日：昭和时代一百周年、二战结束80周年以及自民党成立70周年。 these confluence of symbolically important dates amplifies the stakes for national leadership. 这一系列具有象征意义的日期的重合，放大了国家领导力的 stakes. 重要性。
生存策略：选择有限
随着压力increasingly constrained: mounting, Ishiba's potential paths forward appear increasingly constrained: 不断增加，石破茂未来的 potential paths forward appear increasingly constrained: 潜在出路似乎越来越受限：
内阁改组的赌博
包括2014年的安倍晋三和2023年的岸田文雄在内的前首相，曾试图通过内阁改组 coupled with new policy initiatives. 结合新政策来重塑公众perception. 印象。历史上， such moves have generated short-term approval bumps of 5-8 percentage points — potentially enough to lift Ishiba back above the critical 30% threshold temporarily. 这种做法短期内曾带来5-8个百分点的支持率提升—— potential to lift Ishiba back above the critical 30% threshold temporarily. potentially enough to lift Ishiba back above the critical 30% threshold temporarily. 可能足以暂时将石破茂拉回到30%的关键阈值之上。
高风险的解散国会
更具戏剧性的是，石破茂可以像1997年的桥本龙太郎那样， call a snap lower house election. 提前举行众议院选举。 snap lower house election. 然而， snap lower house election. 当前民调显示 this would be extraordinarily risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. 这将 extraordinary risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. extraordinarily risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. 具有 extraordinary risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. extraordinarily risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. extraordinary risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. extraordinarily risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. extraordinarily risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. extraordinary risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. extraordinary risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. extraordinar高风险， potential to further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet. 可能导致自民党进一步 loss and an even more fractured Diet. loss and an even more fractured Diet. 损失席位， Diet even more fractured Diet. 使国会更加碎片化。
接班情景
如果支持率跌破20%，历史 pattern suggests the LDP would move swiftly to replace Ishiba before the Upper House election, similar to the 2001 transition from the deeply unpopular Mori to the charismatic Junichiro Koizumi. 模式表明， pattern suggests the LDP would move swiftly to replace Ishiba before the Upper House election, similar to the 2001 transition from the deeply unpopular Mori to the charismatic Junichiro Koizumi. pattern suggests the LDP would move swiftly to replace Ishiba before the Upper House election, similar to the 2001 transition from the deeply unpopular Mori to the charismatic Junichiro Koizumi. pattern suggests the LDP would move swiftly to replace Ishiba before the Upper House election, similar to the 2001 transition from the deeply unpopular Mori to the charismatic Junichiro Koizumi. 自民党将在参议院选举前迅速更换石破茂，就像2001年从不受欢迎的森喜朗过渡到 charismatic Junichiro Koizumi. 富有魅力的小泉纯一郎一样。
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